Stark warning over climate change
By Roger Harrabin
BBC Environment Correspondent
M-way jam (BBC)
The UK's own carbon emissions have gone up recently
The world is likely to suffer a temperature rise of more than
3C, says the UK government's chief scientist.
That would cause drought and famine and threaten billions of
lives, said Professor David King in a report based on computer
predictions.
Tony Blair wants a global consensus on stabilising greenhouse
gas emissions, blamed for climate change. The government shares
the EU's 2C limit.
The US refuses to cut emissions, and those of India and
China are rising. The government report says a 3C rise would cause:
# A drop worldwide of between 20 and 400 million tonnes
in cereal crops
# About 400 million more people at risk of hunger
# Between 1.2bn and 3bn more people at risk of water stress
At such a temperature, it said, few ecosystems could adapt
(natural forests could not); half of nature reserves would
cease to be worthwhile [perish] and at least a fifth of the
remaining coastal wetlands would be lost.
Agreement 'unlikely'
Prime Minister Tony Blair said recently in New Zealand he
wanted the world to agree a level for stabilising
greenhouse gas emissions.
He wants to stabilise the climate at an increase of no
more than 2C, according to the Department for Environment,
Food and Rural Affairs and Downing Street.
Threat
The forecast effects of a 3C temperature rise are made in
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, a report based on early
computer modelling by the UK's Hadley Centre, a world leader
in climate projection!
It said the world absolutely must hold temperature rise to
below 2C despite the opposition of the United States, and
the need for China and India to increase their economies
to tackle poverty.
The scale of the mis-match between climate science and
climate politics highlight the discrepancy between the UK
government's stated goals and the figures on which its
policies are based. How the changes in UK government
attitude can bring about the immediate turnaround of
global practices is uncertain, and thus defines the
very modest measure of the chances of environmental
survival.
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