imra Mon Apr 3 00:22:11 2006 Volume 2 : Issue 1362
In this issue of the imra daily Digest:
2006 Knesset Elections - numerical results
- including all parties
PRAYER VIGIL & PROTEST AT PLO MISSION
- NYC Sunday, April 2, 10:30AM
Economic cost of Olmert's proposed
withdrawal: USD 25 billion
Major-General Amos Gilad indicates Israel knows
how many Katyushas are in Gaza Strip
General Amos Gilad indicates Israel knows
how many Katyushas are in Gaza Strip
Pensioners' Party intended to be part of Kadima
Characteristics of Knesset Members by Party
Excerpts: Saudi king for political and economic reforms.
Journalist punishment.2 April 2006
Weaker Israel: Election marks shift in
counterterror alliance with U.S.
250 security prisoners transferred from Ketziot Prison
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: imra@netvision.net.il
To: imra@imra.org.il
Subject: 2006 Knesset Elections - numerical results
- including all parties
2006 Knesset Elections - numerical results - including all parties
Source: The Jerusalem Post
www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?blobcol=urlimage&blobheader=image%2Fjpeg&blobkey=id&blobtable=JPImage&blobwhere=1143498775761&cachecontrol=never&ssbinary=true
690,095 Kadima
472,746 Labor
282,070 Likud
299,130 Shas
281,850 Israel Beiteinu
223,830 National Union/NRP
185,790 Gil - Pensioners
146,958 United Torah Judaism
118,356 Meretz
094,460 United Arab List
085,830 Hadash
072,013 Balad
Minimum number of votes required for representation in the 17th Knesset :
62,760. 24,609 votes is worth one mandate. The following parties failed to
get the minimum votes.
047,634 Greens
040,419 Green Leaf
025,935 Hazit
018,746 Tafnit
014,007 Atid Ehad
010,274 Hetz
004,907 Shinui
003,819 Justice for All
003,695 Da'am
002,883 Herut
002,280 Brit Olam
002,164 Party for War Against the Banks
001,765 Lev
001,509 Tzomet
001,384 Lehem
001,278 New Zionism
001,218 Power to the Poor
000,580 Leeder
000,738 Arab National Party
------------------------------
From: imra@netvision.net.il
To: imra@imra.org.il
Subject: PRAYER VIGIL & PROTEST AT PLO MISSION
- NYC Sunday, April 2, 10:30AM
PRAYER VIGIL & PROTEST AT THE PLO MISSION
Sunday, April 2, 10:30AM
PLO Mission to the UN:
115 East 65th Street New York
In response to the terrible murder of four Jews in Israel this past week,
AMCHA: The Coalition for Jewish Concerns will be holding a prayer vigil and
protest in front of the PLO Msission to the United Nations, this Sunday at
10:30AM.. "We will not allow this horrific slaughter of innocent civilians
without a response of moral outrage and condemnation," stated Rabbi Avi
Weiss, National President of AMCHA: Coalition for Jewish Concerns. People
of all faiths are encouraged to attend.
Amcha-CJC
3700 Henry Hudson Pkwy, Riverdale NY 10463
Phone: (718) 884-8499
Fax: (718) 884-9866
Email: amchacjc@amchacjc.org
www.amchacjc.org
------------------------------
From: imra@netvision.net.il
To: imra@imra.org.il
Subject: Economic cost of Olmert's proposed
withdrawal: USD 25 billion
Israeli public will have to pay
Sever Plocker YNET 26 March 2006
www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3232251,00.html
As with Gaza pullout, taxpayers will shoulder burden for future West Bank
move
The eviction of some 1,500 families from the Gaza Strip last summer has so
far cost the country NIS 8.5 billion (about USD 1.8 billion). NIS 2.5
billion (about USD 532 million) of that is intended to cover military costs,
the rest for civilian costs.
Ehud Olmert's "convergence" plan could affect 20,000 families, or about
90,000 residents of Judea and Samaria. Some will be moved to within the 1967
border; others to "consensus" settlement blocs. What does this massive
program mean in economic terms?
If we take the evacuation-compensation model, the State of Israel will be
required to pay 20,000 evicted families direct compensation, at a cost of
about NIS 66 billion (about USD 14 billion). And if we use Gaza as an
example, temporary housing, moving costs and new infrastructure will cost an
additional NIS 13 million (about USD 2.7 million).
The Ministry of Defense estimates that a unilateral disengagement from Judea
and Samaria will cost the army about NIS 16 billion (about USD 3.4 billion).
And so initial estimates of a second disengagement program stand at about
NIS 95 billion, or USD 20 billion. Put differently: 17 percent of the entire
output of the State of Israel.
But that's not the whole story. Far from it.
Additional costs
Most Gaza residents were able to be moved to existing settlements within the
green line. Only a few were placed in the new housing project at Nitzanim.
Thus, the country saved on the environmental and infrastructure costs bound
up with establishing new cities and neighborhoods.
But to accommodate 90,000 settlers, evicted and bitter, the investment of
public money in building new towns, cities and villages will be very high.
And who will worry about employing thousands of evacuees from Judea and
Samaria? Where will they find jobs? Many of them will simply become a burden
on the public purse.
In conclusion: The economic cost of Ehud Olmert's proposed "convergence"
plan is NIS 120 billion. That's USD 25 billion, folks.
Twenty-five billion dollars, without taking into account problems such as
underestimations, bottlenecks in carrying out the program, the fact that
there is no national consensus for such a move, and other problems.
To compare: The entire 2006 budget, without repaying debts, is NIS 230
billion (about USD 49 billion). The defense budget is NIS 46 billion (about
USD 9.8 billion). The four-year budget for the war on poverty is NIS 9
billion (about USD 1.9 billion).
A unilateral pullout will cost NIS 120 billion. Who's gonna pay it? Who's
gonna pay?
U.S. won't help
Not the Americans, that's for sure. For the Gaza pullout Israel asked the
Bush administration for USD 2 billion in aid to build new IDF bases and to
invest in developing the Negev and Galilee regions (in order to not have to
ask for money to compensate settlers). We got nothing. Not one cent.
The fact that Israeli tax payers were forced to shoulder the entire NIS 8.5
billion (about USD 1.8 billion) price tag for the Gaza pullout bodes
extremely poorly for the notion that any American administration will foot
the bill for another unilateral move.
This plan, as it has been presented by the acting prime minister, includes
the annexation of a fair amount of Palestinian land. It is impossible to see
any U.S. government aiding a move that would include an un-agreed upon
annexation of settlement blocs. They haven't even agreed to finance one
single kilometer of the West Bank separation fence.
Credit for disengagement
Perhaps Israel could finance West Bank disengagement with foreign credit? No
way.
Foreign investors will only fund those national projects that will yield a
positive economic benefit.
This is how Israel, for example, was able to gather USD 9 billion to absorb
new immigrants from the former Soviet Union. The Russian aliyah made the
Israeli market flourish, spurred growth and exports and was a central factor
in the growth of the hi-tech industry. It was a worthwhile investment.
The withdrawal from Judea and Samaria, and moving the settlers from place to
place will not raise the potential for growth in Israel, and would not be
considered an investment in research and development or creative assets.
There is no reason to expect favorable credit terms from international
finance institutions such as the World Bank. Israel, as far as the World
Bank is concerned, is a developed country with no rights to discount
financing.
And the World Bank is even more limited than the U.S. government with regard
to political games.
World Jewry
Okay, then, what about Diaspora Jews? Maybe the Jewish Agency will undertake
an emergency fund raising drive for the "convergence" plan?
But even if we assume that world Jewry would dig deep into their pockets to
finance the second disengagement, even in the absence of a clear national
consensus in Israel. How much could they reasonably be expected to give? A
billion dollars? Two billion?
There is only one chance for American and/or international aid for removing
settlements and setting borders in Judea and Samaria. As we found out during
the Camp David summit in July, 2000 between President Bill Clinton, Ehud
Olmert and Yasser Arafat, Washington is prepared to dole out funds
generously (at that time, discussions revolved around the number USD 20
billion) for an "end of the conflict" agreement between Israel and the
Palestinians, on condition that other countries also chip in to help out
both Israel and the Palestinians.
Such aid, however, is dependent on having a partner. And to create a
partner, there must be dialogue. For dialogue, there must be some formal
arrangement. Unilateralism won't cut it, even if the world views it
positively.
The Americans' refusal to give financial aid for the Gaza move, a pullout
President Bush and Congress praised, teaches us that we'd better not count
on foreign funding for future unilateral pullouts.
We'll pay
We will have to pay. In order to finance the second disengagement out of our
own pockets, each family in Israel will be forced to pony up NIS 70,000, or
USD 15,000, over the course of three-to-four years. Olmert says his
government will unilaterally set Israel's final borders.
How do you give NIS 70,000 to the Finance Ministry? Either by raising taxes
or by issuing bonds. Neither option is particularly heartwarming.
Using bonds to raise money from the public is not a recommended from the
point of view of economics. It's expensive for the government, nebulous for
citizens and strikes a blow at the standing and grading of the economy and
stock market.
Israeli governments have not used interest bonds since the failed "Peace for
the Galilee Bonds."
But higher taxes are also no great solution: An additional NIS 40 billion
(about USD 8.5 billion) in taxes per year for three years means a very sharp
rise in personal interest tax rates (the PR slogan could be "reevaluating
taxes to set our borders") and other, indirect taxes such as petrol taxes.
A comparison
In terns of total cost to the economy, financing the
disengagement/convergence plan is of the same scale as West Germany's
annexation of East Germany. There are two differences, however, neither one
in our favor: Germany is a lot richer than Israel, and there was no debate
amongst the German nation about the need to annex the eastern part of the
country.
Nobody knows how much the Israeli public has invested to this point in
building settlements. This is an economic secret that cannot be deciphered.
On the other hand, the cost of withdrawal is clear and open. In economic
terms, this is called a "dead burden." Israeli citizens who will be required
to pay higher taxes, lower their standards of living, tighten their belts
and forget about social programs such as the war on poverty or education
reform - the burden will be very much alive. Alive and painful.
(03.26.06, 11:38)
====
Sever Plocker is chief economics editor and deputy editor-in chief of Yediot
Aharonot
------------------------------
From: imra@netvision.net.il
To: imra@imra.org.il
Subject: Major-General Amos Gilad indicates Israel knows
how many Katyushas are in Gaza Strip
Major-General Amos Gilad indicates Israel knows how many Katyushas are in
Gaza Strip
Aaron Lerner Date: 2 April 2006
Coordinator Of Government Activities In The Territories, Major-General Amos
Gilad told Israel Radio in a live interview broadcast this morning that the
Katyusha rockets in the Gaza Strip are not significant - despite their range
in excess of 20 kilometers - because the Palestinians "don't have enough
stock".
The morning news program host , Arieh Golan, did not ask Gilad how Israel
had a reliable "inventory count" of the Katyushas in the Gaza Strip given
that Israel is not in the Gaza Strip and does not have a presence on the
Egypt-Gaza border and there was even a long period during which no party
even made a semblance of attempting to control the border area.
Gilad declined to either confirm or deny that some of the IDF shelling was
actually going into the open sea rather than the open field targets.
Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il
------------------------------
From: imra@netvision.net.il
To: imra@imra.org.il
Subject: General Amos Gilad indicates Israel knows
how many Katyushas are in Gaza Strip
General Amos Gilad indicates Israel knows how many Katyushas are in Gaza
Strip
Aaron Lerner Date: 2 April 2006
General (Res.) Amos Gilad, Director of Policy and Political Military Bureau,
Ministry of Defense, told Israel Radio in a live interview broadcast this
morning that the Katyusha rockets in the Gaza Strip are not significant -
despite their range in excess of 20 kilometers - because the Palestinians
"don't have enough stock".
The morning news program host , Arieh Golan, did not ask Gilad how Israel
had a reliable "inventory count" of the Katyushas in the Gaza Strip given
that Israel is not in the Gaza Strip and does not have a presence on the
Egypt-Gaza border and there was even a long period during which no party
even made a semblance of attempting to control the border area.
Gilad declined to either confirm or deny that some of the IDF shelling was
actually going into the open sea rather than the open field targets.
Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il
------------------------------
From: imra@netvision.net.il
To: imra@imra.org.il
Subject: Pensioners' Party intended to be part of Kadima
Pensioners' Party intended to be part of Kadima
Aaron Lerner Date: 2 April 2006
Yaakov Ben-Yizri, number two in "Gil", the Pensioners' Party that won 7
seats in the elections last week, revealed in an interviews in the Maariv
regional weekly Zman Hasharon (Sharon Times) of 31 March that the party had
originally intended to join Kadima.
"I have news for you. We tried to join the Kadima Party, the party that was
appropriate in the opinion of all the partners in the party. We found in
this party [AL: Kadima] by the way, the number one in the Pensioner's Party
list, Rafi Eitan. We carried out negotiations with Kadima and he was the
person who brokered between us and Arik Sharon. We were assured a safe seat
on the Kadima Knesset list. This conversation took place one day before the
prime minister was supposed to have a procedure, and we set to talk a week
afterwards in order to close the matter. To our sorrow what happened to
Arik Sharon happened, and two weeks after that Olmert began to fill the
position of acting prime minister. It took time until we reached the person
we were supposed to talk about the matter with, some advisor in the Ministry
of Industry and Trade. When we finally succeeded in talking with him he
said that the Kadima list up to number 31, had already been promised by Arik
Sharon, and that places 31 to 51 would be set by Ehud Olmert. He offered us
number 52. We said thanks and goodbye. That was at the start of January
and at the end of that same month we decided to run alone and approached
Rafi Eitan and asked him to run at the head of the list. At the beginning
he laughed at it, but after he saw that we were serious he joined us and we
reached the results that we reached, a party two months old."
Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il
------------------------------
From: imra@netvision.net.il
To: imra@imra.org.il
Subject: Characteristics of Knesset Members by Party
First time in Knesset: 38
Kadima - 11
Labor-Meimad 6
Shas 4
Yisrael Beiteinu 7
Pensioners' Party 7
Ra'am-Ta'al 1
Hadash 2
Sphardis: 34
Kadima - 10
Labor-Meimad 5
Likud 2
Shas 12
National Union-National Religious Party 2
Pensioners' Party 2
Meretz 1
New immigrants: 14
Kadima - 3
Likud 1
Shas 2
Yisrael Beiteinu 8
Arabs: 11
Kadima - 1
Labor-Meimad 2
Ra'am-Ta'al 3
Hadash 2
Balad 3
Religious-Ultra Orthodox
Kadima - 4
Labor-Meimad 1
Shas 12
Yisrael Beiteinu 1
National Union-National Religious Party 8
United Torah Judaism 6
Women: 17
Kadima - 6
Labor-Meimad 5
Likud 1
Yisrael Beiteinu 3
Pensioners' Party 1
Meretz 1
PhD's and Profs. 17
Kadima - 6
Labor-Meimad 3
Likud 1
National Union-National Religious Party 1
Meretz 1
Ra'am-Ta'al 1
Hadash 2
Balad 2
Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il
------------------------------
From: imra@netvision.net.il
To: imra@imra.org.il
Subject: Excerpts: Saudi king for political and economic reforms.
Journalist punishment.2 April 2006
Excerpts: Saudi king for political and economic reforms.Journalist
punishment.2 April 2006
ARAB NEWS )(Saudi) 2 April '06:"King Vows to Press Ahead With Reforms"by
Raid Qusti
QUOTES FROM TEXT:
" 'continue ... to deepen national dialogue, free the economy, fight
corruption and increase government labor proficiency' "
" 'eliminate all deviant members of terrorist cells' "
"' establish friendship ... with regard to oil production and
distribution' "
RIYADH, 2 April 2006 - ...King Abdullah said...the "Kingdom cannot remain
frozen while the world is changing around us," and vowed to move ahead with
political and economic reforms.
King Abdullah opened the Shoura Council's session for this year ... before
the country's appointed representative advisory body.
The king addressed the 150-member chamber, which was also attended by
princes and senior ministers. Some 60 ambassadors also attended, helping to
illustrate the importance of the address.
"We will continue with our development progress to deepen national dialogue,
free the economy, fight corruption, and increase government labor
proficiency," he said. "All of this will take place ... through a balanced
and steady progress that goes along with the needs of the society via
Islamic Shariah." ... ."This is why we are reconfirming our determination
to eliminate all deviant members of terrorist cells," ... . . .
We hope to provide housing and working opportunities as well as providing
education, medical treatment, as well as other services," he said. "We are
keen on combating poverty and providing public services in areas that have
not received them yet according to studied total development plans."
. . .
"We will continue to always support fair Arab causes ... especially our
Palestinian brethren," ... .
... the king said that Saudi Arabia was a part of the international
community ....
"Our stance will remain as always based on establishing friendship,
cooperating with everyone, and spreading peace. ... by following its modest
policies with regard to oil production and distribution to protect the
international market from any turbulences," he said.
[IMRA: By OPEC's cartel setting the high world price of oil?]
. . .
"I say to all male and female citizens ... I shall be amongst you in our
progress as we raise the flag of Islam and the country high above."
The president of the Shoura Council ... highlighted King Abdullah's
successful trips to several Asian countries, which further opened many
economic avenues for the Kingdom.
... said the council sought to be a "contributing factor along with other
bodies in overseeing the performance of government bodies through the
development of the council's supervision role."
Bin-Humaid noted the importance of the establishment of the human rights
body and the role it plays in guaranteeing basic rights for citizens and
residents through Islamic law and the Basic Ruling Constitution of the
Kingdom. . . .
+++JORDAN TIMES 2 April '06:
"Editorial:Prison for journalists"
QUOTES FROM TEXT:
"Lower House ... voted down ... ammendment to teh Press and Publications
Law that would have abolished prison sentances for ... certain
violations."
"Who draws the line between slander and the selfless dedicated efforts of
a
reporter determined to expose a major corruption scandal?"
"questions are mostly up to the military courts"
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EXCERPTS:
The Lower House missed yet another opportunity to support the country's
socio-political development and democratisation process last month, when it
voted down an amendment to the Press and Publications Law that would have
abolished prison sentences for journalists charged with certain violations.
Conservatives usually ... fight against the principle of journalistic
immunity. ....
"If journalists are threatened with imprisonment or actually imprisoned in
the US, why shouldn't the same happen in less developed Jordan?" ask the
conservatives here.
Other opponents to the cancellation of provisions envisaging prison
sentences for journalists are more articulate.
.... So, if a journalist commits as grave an offence as incitement to
violence or vilification of a religion, he should be punished accordingly.
. . .
Who draws the line between slander and the selfless, dedicated efforts of a
reporter determined to expose a major corruption scandal?
Where does objective reporting end and "damage to the image of friendly
states" start?
According to our law, as it is today, these and most other delicate
questions are mostly up to the military courts.
As journalists, it is high time that we assume responsibility for this sad
state of affairs.
It is as much our fault as it is "the regime's."
... . In the case of the amendment to scrap prison sentences, for example,
the fight was left almost entirely to the Higher Media Council ... a
hybrid deliberately created to wield little, if any, power.
Journalists' ranks remain deeply divided between an old guard who still
views its job as that of a mouthpiece for the leadership, and a new guard
too timid and self-absorbed to fight real battles in the real world. . .
.
Dr. Joseph Lerner, Co-Director IMRA
------------------------------
From: imra@netvision.net.il
To: imra@imra.org.il
Subject: Weaker Israel: Election marks shift in
counterterror alliance with U.S.
Weaker Israel: Election marks shift in counterterror alliance with U.S.
Geostrategy-Direct, www.geostrategy-direct.com, April 5, 2006
...
The United States has harbored mixed feelings for Olmert and his
predecessor, Sharon. President Bush has been pleased with Israel's
willingness to cooperate with the U ited States on virtually every major
issue, including Iraq, the Palestinians and arms exports.
At the same time, Bush and some of his aides have been quietly concerned
over the image of Israel as a country ready to withdraw in the face of
terrorism. Privately, le ding aides and strategists believe that Israel's
hesitancy to fight Hamas, Hizbullah and other terrorist groups could
encourage Al Qaida and those sworn to defeat the United States. They also
see Israel's failure to defeat Palestinian insurgents as encouraging Iran's
belligerency.
"Israel screwed us up with its unilateral withdrawal plan because this is
what is expected of us in Iraq," a senior Bush aide said in a recent private
conversation with a Republican House member. "But we can't be seen as
intervening."
As a result, urged by then-Secretary of State Colin Powell and National S
curity Advisor Condoleezza Rice, Bush supported Sharon's plan for a
unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and northern West Bank in
September 2005. Bush saw U.S. endorsement of Sharon's plan as a way to win
support in the Arab world that has long sought Israeli withdrawal.
Bush's attitude toward Israel has changed as well. Until 2002, Bush saw
Israel has a powerful ally of the United States and able to deter its
enemies. Today, the president sees Israel as weak and Bush has publicly
pledged to protect the Jewish state from an Iranian attack. Quietly, Israeli
defense officials dismiss Bush's pledge was little more than symbolic given
the start of the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq.
"The feeling in both the administration and among belatedly among many
conservatives in Congress is that Israel has to accept the fate of a small
nation reliant on a superpower patron," a leading U.S. analyst who is close
to the administration said.
Olmert's win was expected to accelerate government preparations for
additional withdrawals from the West Bank. The military has begun drafting
plans for the expulsion of tens of thousands of Israelis from dozens of
Jewish communities in the area. The State Department has already encouraged
the Israeli plans.
But for Israel, the result could be years of bloodshed and even
insurrection. In February, more than 200 people, several of them seriously,
were injured in a clash between Israeli anti-riot and Jewish youngsters, who
sought to prevent the demolition of nine unlicensed buildings in the West
Bank. Days later, more than 90,000 people rallied in Jerusalem and pledged
to physically stop future withdrawals.
"Not everybody is the same," Amnon Danker, editor of the Israeli daily
Maariv, said. "There are differences of black and white, heaven and earth."
------------------------------
From: imra@netvision.net.il
To: imra@imra.org.il
Subject: 250 security prisoners transferred from Ketziot Prison
ISRAEL PRISON SERVICE STATEMENT
(Communicated by the Israel Prison Service)
The Israel Prison Service www.ips.gov.il/ShabasEng/Main/default.asp has
released the following statement today (Sunday), 2.4.06:
"Two hundred and fifty security prisoners were transferred this morning from
Ketziot Prison to prisons in the center of the country. No untoward
incidents were recorded. Approximately 250 additional prisoners are
expected to be similarly transferred later today. The IPS is prepared to
absorb security prisoners and detainees from the IDF.
------------------------------
From: imra-owner@imra.org.il
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------------------------------
End of [imra] Daily digest - Volume: 2 Issue: 1362 (10 messages)
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