Bush wins boost from terror tape

Bush wins boost from terror tape
· Candidates battle over bin Laden video · Early poll move to PresidentPaul Harris in Orlando, Peter Beaumont in Washington, Jason Burke and Gaby HinsliffSunday October 31, 2004
The ObserverGeorge W Bush moved yesterday to seize the political advantage after Osama bin Laden's extraordinary intervention in the US presidential election on Friday night.
The campaign descended into a final bout of acrimony yesterday as both sides attacked each other for making political capital out of the al-Qaeda leader's video address. But it appeared to be the incumbent who will gain any political advantage.
A Newsweek tracker poll published yesterday suggested the momentum may be moving in the incumbent's way. The poll predicted Bush to win by 50 per cent to Kerry's 44, compared with a 48-46 gap last week.
As the candidates spent their last Saturday before Tuesday's election attacking one another over terrorism, political analysts were quick to suggest that bin Laden's intervention would favour Bush, who has consistently led John Kerry on security.
Kerry was the first to use the tape to attack his opponent, appealing for Americans to show unity, but then quickly condemning Bush for missing an opportunity to capture bin Laden. 'I regret that when George Bush had the opportunity in Afghanistan and Tora Bora, he didn't choose to use American forces to hunt down and kill Osama bin Laden,' Kerry said.
Bush responded by lambasting Kerry's comments as 'shameful', and his aides followed up the attack. 'You would think there would be maybe 12 hours to let the American people absorb this [the video],' said White House spokesman Dan Bartlett.
Democrats at first said Kerry had not seen the tape when he made his comments. However, his aides held conference calls with reporters and in their turn attacked the Republicans for using the video as a political tool.
'It's offensive and shameful for this president to play politics the way he did today with this issue,' Joe Lockhart a senior Kerry strategist told the Los Angeles Times.
The developing political row over the bin Laden tape came amid news from Iraq that eight Marines has been killed and nine others injured after heavy clashes, apparently just outside Fallujah.
The combination of the bin Laden tape and the new Iraq violence has thrust the issue of security back to the front of a campaign that has been dominated by terrorism.
Kerry's initial mis-step seems to have allowed the Republicans to put his team on the defensive over a video whose content - most analysts believe - favours Bush's campaign, not least because it also succeeded in knocking two major news stories potentially damaging to the president off the front pages.
Allegations over missing explosives in Iraq and an FBI probe of Halliburton hit the Bush campaign all last week.
The campaign had also been hurt by the revelation that one of its most important final campaign ads - showing soldiers supporting Bush - had been doctored. But those stories have now been replaced by the ghostly image of bin Laden telling Americans they have brought their troubles on themselves.
As US intelligence analysts studied the full ,unbroadcast version of the tape, it emerged that the US ambassador to Qatar had attempted to persuade the Qatari government to pressure al Jazeera into suppressing it. The tape was delivered in a package to the network's Islamabad office on Friday morning.
Senior executives in Qatar quickly took the decision to broadcast the tape. 'We don't believe anyone can argue about the newsworthiness of this latest Osama bin Laden recording. Any news organisation would have aired the tape if they had received it,' Jihad Ballout, an al-Jazeera spokesman, said.
Analysis of the tape indicates that it was made last weekend. Officials in Washington say there is a text at the start saying that it was produced by 'al-Shahab media company', an al-Qaeda trademark. The tape is also dated to the 10th day of Ramadan, the Muslim holy month - last Sunday.
Intelligence officials in the US and Europe were combing the text for any hints of future attacks. Investigators probing recent blasts in Egypt believe that a codeword ordering the attacks was hidden in an audio tape released by Ayman al-Zawahiri, bin Laden's deputy, shortly before the strike.
It is highly doubtful that any American would change their vote on the basis of a statement by a man who has taken responsibility for the 11 September attacks that cost almost 3,000 lives.
But the real influence of the statement lies in the emphasis it places on terrorism for the few final days of the election. Polls have consistently shown that Bush leads Kerry on terrorism. Bush has consistently referred to himself as a wartime president.
Analysts were divided over the impact. Peverill Squire, a political scientist at the University of Iowa, told the Los Angeles Times: 'We have become so divided in terms of partisanship that each side will read what they want into the statement. What Republicans are thinking is: "This puts the focus back on terrorism." And the people supporting Kerry say this shows bin Laden is alive and well three years after we said we were going to get him.'
With just two days to go until election day, many polls still have the candidates neck and neck. A Zogby tracking poll released yesterday had Kerry one point ahead of Bush by 47 per cent to 46. However, most polls last week gave Bush a two- or three-point lead. An average of all polls has Bush leading Kerry by 2.5 per cent.
In London, the tape dramatically heightens fear- - already pre-occupying the Home Secretary, David Blunkett - that al-Qaeda will seek to disrupt Britain's general election next year, either through propaganda stunts like the tape or direct attacks.
Michael Ancram, the shadow foreign secretary, hinted at such fears yesterday, warning that terrorist 'blackmail' should not prevail in elections anywhere: 'Bin Laden is clearly trying to follow a strategy whereby he can appear to have influence over the outcome of elections in democratic countries, thereby showing that fundamentalist terrorism pays. I hope US voters - indeed voters everywhere - will treat this blackmail with the contempt it deserves.'
Lib Dem leader Charles Kennedy condemned bin Laden's 'cynical' manipulation, but said his intervention highlighted the fatal error of failing to finish the war on Afghanistan before launching military action in Iraq.
The repercussions will be felt at Westminster next Thursday, when MPs are due to debate terrorism. By then, the possibility of change in the White House will have galvanised internal debate over where the war on terror should go next.
Although ministers have been warned not to comment on the US elections, most Labour MPs are privately 'praying morning, noon and night' for a Kerry victory, as a senior minister put it. However, another minister warned yesterday of an 'emotional spasm' of anti-Bush feeling clouding the left's judgment, arguing that a second Bush term could produce benefits for Britain.
Yesterday Ladbrokes shortened the odds on a Bush win from 4/6 to 8/13, as the bin Laden video prompted a rush of money on the Republicans.
Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2004